Ankur Banerjee previews European and worldwide markets. European markets are expecting a calm start to the week as the ECB stands quiet on rates but may hint at rate reduction, and investors will analyze the latest U.S. inflation report.
In addition to UK GDP data at the end of the week, markets will evaluate U.S. PPI and Fed minutes from March. The week also features Fed speakers John Williams, Mary Daly, and Raphael Bostic.
At the European Central Bank meeting on April 11, investors see little possibility of a cut, but they have fully priced in a June cut and two or three more later this year.
That makes officials' words and tone of announcement interesting for traders. European bourses are expected to open stable, with the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) in focus.
The index hit a two-week low Friday. Investors will have to deal with the next U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report on April 10, which is projected to show core inflation falling to 3.7% from 3.8% in March.
After another strong U.S. jobs report, the inflation report is now the next crucial market data. It was originally scheduled for March, shifted to June, and is now being postponed to July or September.
Investors may also be accepting that a robust U.S. economy is good. High U.S. Treasury yields have helped the dollar and shares, but whether investor excitement for risk assets in the face of the revived higher-for-longer narrative survives is unclear.
A media report that Gaza truce discussions are progressing in Cairo and all sides have agreed on basic parameters also boosted risk appetite. February economic events: Germany trade balance, industrial output, export, and import.
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