What happens when voters demand change but there's no obvious candidate? I was wondering this after watching one of Rich Thau's fascinating monthly focus groups of Biden-Trump voters, which included Pennsylvania citizens who voted for President Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, and former President Donald Trump.
Since Trump's election, Thau has conducted monthly qualitative voter check-ins nationwide. He recruited Obama-Trump voters for 2020. His voter résumé now includes the mix above, focused on persons who switch elections.
The surprising interest in Robert F. Kennedy Jr. among swing voters was the highlight of this month's Pennsylvania check-in. In some ways, this is expected. Over the last two elections, these individuals have voted against both main parties, indicating that they are not firm partisans.
As I said months ago, there would be a point in this campaign cycle when both major parties had nominated Biden and Trump and the public wasn't happy. Now is that time.
We knew his trials would interrupt Trump, but it wasn't apparent how much other matters would derail Biden six months ago. However, the Middle East is becoming a major political concern for him.
Kennedy fills the gap left by the lack of a mainstream third-party. Many voters see him as a celebrity filling a need. Many Pennsylvania voters knew little about Kennedy other than his name, and those that did knew little. His biggest advantage was that his last name wasn't Trump or Biden.
However, given the stakes of this election, I've seen that the actual middle-of-the-road or less partisan crowd has a tiny opening. Without party adherents wanting an alternative, there was no way to win.
Kennedy pulls from Trump and Biden roughly equally nationally, supporting the idea that he's a placeholder for “none of the above.” I'm not sure Kennedy will pull evenly from the two major candidates in battleground states like Michigan versus North Carolina or Arizona versus Wisconsin.
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